{"id":7118,"date":"2022-07-13T14:41:50","date_gmt":"2022-07-13T13:41:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reuniwatt.com\/es\/?p=7118"},"modified":"2024-08-14T10:43:50","modified_gmt":"2024-08-14T09:43:50","slug":"wrf-solar-eps-un-nuevo-sistema-para-la-prevision-probabilistica-de-energia-solar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reuniwatt.com\/es\/noticias-de-la-empresa\/wrf-solar-eps-un-nuevo-sistema-para-la-prevision-probabilistica-de-energia-solar\/","title":{"rendered":"WRF-Solar EPS: Un nuevo sistema para la previsi\u00f3n probabil\u00edstica de energ\u00eda solar"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hay muchos modelos num\u00e9ricos de predicci\u00f3n meteorol\u00f3gica (NWP), pero el modelo Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) es el modelo predictivo libre m\u00e1s utilizado en el mundo. El WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) recientemente desarrollado nos permite hacer pron\u00f3sticos probabil\u00edsticos de radiaci\u00f3n solar con alta calidad.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00bfQue es WRF-Solar?<\/h2>\n

En este momento se instalan m\u00e1s y m\u00e1s sistemas fotovoltaicos (PV) en todo el mundo y la previsi\u00f3n de energ\u00eda solar<\/a> intradiaria y diaria se vuelve m\u00e1s y m\u00e1s importante. Pero en los modelos num\u00e9ricos de predicci\u00f3n meteorol\u00f3gica (NWP), la radiaci\u00f3n de onda corta es una variable de diagn\u00f3stico y debe ser calculada.<\/p>\n

WRF-Solar, un desarrollo adicional de WRF, fue dise\u00f1ado para mejorar la precisi\u00f3n de la interacci\u00f3n aerosol-nube-radiaci\u00f3n. En los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, el Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) se ha adaptado y ampliado espec\u00edficamente para simular con mayor precisi\u00f3n la interacci\u00f3n de los aerosoles, las nubes y la radiaci\u00f3n 1,2<\/sup>.\u00a0 Para ello se ha cambiado y mejorado las numerosas parametrizaciones en el modelo WRF 3,4<\/sup>. Esto permite reducir en gran medida el error de pron\u00f3stico de la radiaci\u00f3n solar, especialmente en el caso de un cielo despejado.<\/p>\n

\u00bfQue es el WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)?<\/h2>\n

WRF-Solar EPS es una ampliaci\u00f3n de las partes WRF-Solar del modelo WRF. Esta novedad introduce perturbaciones estoc\u00e1sticas en las variables de las parametrizaciones m\u00e1s relevantes para la predicci\u00f3n de la radiaci\u00f3n solar que llega al suelo. Estas variables han sido identificadas con modelos lineales tangentes. En esta herramienta de pron\u00f3stico de \u00faltima generaci\u00f3n, los m\u00e9todos de perturbaci\u00f3n estoc\u00e1stica se eligen especialmente para tener en cuenta las incertidumbres de representaci\u00f3n en los procesos entre las nubes, la radiaci\u00f3n y los aerosoles 5<\/sup>. Un modelo para las previsiones del conjunto de alta calidad como WRF-Solar EPS, nos permite no solo identificar, pero tambi\u00e9n cuantificar los recursos de energ\u00eda solar, porque cada miembro del conjunto representa un posible estado futuro. Las diferencias entre los conjuntos se pueden utilizar para evaluar el rango y la incertidumbre de las predicciones de energ\u00eda solar y ayudar a hacer predicciones de la radiaci\u00f3n solar m\u00e1s precisas.<\/p>\n

Este gr\u00e1fico interactivo muestra un ejemplo de irradiancia horizontal global (GHI) pronosticado con WRF-Solar EPS para Lindenberg (Alemania) el 4 de marzo de 2022. WRF calcula dos regiones de diferentes tama\u00f1os: una con un espacio de cuadr\u00edcula horizontal de 9 km, y el otro con una cuadr\u00edcula de 3 km. L\u00f3gicamente la difusi\u00f3n de los 5 miembros del conjunto difiere de una regi\u00f3n a otra. Se compara con los datos abiertos de medici\u00f3n de DWD.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Pron\u00f3sticos de nubes multicapa<\/h2>\n

Un modelo NWP es una traducci\u00f3n de ecuaciones f\u00edsicas a algo que la computadora puede procesar. Hay variaciones en los procesos en la atm\u00f3sfera de segundos a d\u00edas y de nan\u00f3metros a kil\u00f3metros. Por eso los modelos meteorol\u00f3gicos incluyen muchas estimaciones, omisiones y aproximaciones.\u00a0 El modelo siempre est\u00e1 limitado por su resoluci\u00f3n en el espacio y el tiempo, que define los procesos m\u00e1s peque\u00f1os y r\u00e1pidos que se resuelven. WRF permite ‘nesting’ regiones, lo que significa que una regi\u00f3n \u2018nested’ de alta resoluci\u00f3n se inicializa dentro de una resoluci\u00f3n m\u00e1s gruesa. De esta forma, sin altos costos computacionales, es posible lograr un pron\u00f3stico regional de alta resoluci\u00f3n y el modelo puede calcular procesos micro f\u00edsicos de convecci\u00f3n y nubes.<\/p>\n

La animaci\u00f3n muestra un ejemplo de una previsi\u00f3n de nubes con WRF (dividido en nivel alto, medio y bajo) en Europa Central con la misma configuraci\u00f3n de dos regiones. La animaci\u00f3n derecha est\u00e1 ‘nested’ en la izquierda, lo que significa que no es solo un simple zoom. Todos los procesos f\u00edsicos y micro f\u00edsicos se calculan tambi\u00e9n en la resoluci\u00f3n m\u00e1s alta. Las condiciones iniciales provienen de la regi\u00f3n con una resoluci\u00f3n menor que utiliza los datos del modelo Global Forecast System (GFS) operado por NOAA. Especialmente interesante es la diferencia entre las dos animaciones en t\u00e9rminos de nubes a peque\u00f1a escala. Las modificaciones de WRF-Solar en las parametrizaciones conducen a nubes y formaciones de nubes de alta resoluci\u00f3n mucho m\u00e1s realistas.<\/p>\n<\/div>