Are we truly ready for the next solar storm?
The Sun is more than just a source of light and heat—it is a dynamic and powerful force that can influence life on Earth in unexpected ways. Solar storms, caused by intense bursts of energy from the Sun have the potential to disrupt modern technology and pose risks to space travel, making it essential to understand and prepare for their impact.
What is a solar storm?
Solar storms are disturbances in space caused by intense activity on the Sun’s surface, primarily driven by solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These events release vast amounts of energy and charged particles into space, influencing what is known as space weather. The Sun follows an 11-year cycle of activity, during which solar storms become more frequent during periods of high solar activity, known as solar maximum. When CMEs or high-energy particles from solar flares reach Earth, they interact with our planet’s magnetic field, creating geomagnetic storms. It is important to note that not all CMEs hit Earth—they must be Earth-directed to have an effect. Solar flares release energy almost instantly (light, X-rays), while CMEs are the main cause of geomagnetic storms due to charged particles.
These storms can have significant impacts on modern technology and infrastructure. Monitoring solar activity is crucial for predicting and mitigating these effects. Space agencies and scientists track solar storms to provide early warnings, allowing industries to take preventive measures. Understanding solar storms is essential as our reliance on technology grows, ensuring the resilience of communication, navigation, and power systems against space weather disruptions.
What are the consequences of solar storms?
Solar storms occur when the Sun releases bursts of energy and charged particles, which travel through space and interact with Earth’s magnetic field. This interaction can lead to significant effects on space weather, impacting both natural phenomena and human technology.
One key component of solar storms is solar flares, which are sudden and intense bursts of radiation resulting from magnetic energy release in the Sun’s atmosphere. These flares emit X-rays and ultraviolet radiation, which can reach Earth in minutes, disrupting radio signals and affecting satellite operations. Though short-lived, solar flares can have immediate consequences for communication and navigation systems. Solar flares mostly affect the sunlit side of the Earth, which is why some satellite and aviation routes are more vulnerable depending on where Earth is facing.
Another major factor is coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which involve the expulsion of massive clouds of charged particles from the Sun’s outer layer, the corona. Unlike solar flares, CMEs take one to three days to reach Earth. When they collide with our planet’s magnetic field, they can trigger powerful disturbances, affecting power grids, satellites, and GPS systems.
These disturbances can lead to geomagnetic storms, which occur when CMEs or high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs) from coronal holes interact with Earth’s magnetosphere. HSSs can cause geomagnetic storms especially during the declining phase of the solar cycle. Strong geomagnetic storms can cause widespread technological disruptions, such as power outages and satellite malfunctions. They also create spectacular auroras near the poles, known as the Northern and Southern Lights. The frequency of solar storms depends on the Sun’s 11-year cycle, which alternates between high and low activity. During the solar maximum, solar flares and CMEs occur more frequently, increasing the likelihood of solar storms. In contrast, during the solar minimum, solar activity decreases, and storms become less common.
While minor solar storms are frequent, powerful storms capable of major disruptions are rare. Scientists closely monitor the Sun to predict these events and mitigate their potential impact on Earth’s infrastructure.
Historic solar storms
Major events happened in the past and had a significant impact on the growing interest for solar storms, as their severity have direct consequences on human activities:
- The Carrington Event of 1859 was the most powerful recorded solar storm. A massive coronal mass ejection (CME) struck Earth, causing widespread telegraph failures, electric shocks to operators, and auroras visible as far as the tropics. If a storm of this magnitude occurred today, it could severely disrupt global communications, power grids, and satellites.
- The Quebec Blackout of 1989 was another major solar storm event. A powerful geomagnetic storm, caused by a CME, induced strong electrical currents in the power grid, leading to a nine-hour blackout across Quebec, Canada. Millions were left without power, highlighting the risks of solar storms to modern infrastructure.
- In 2012, a near-miss occurred when a massive CME narrowly missed Earth. Had it hit, it could have caused widespread technological failures, potentially costing trillions in damages. These events emphasize the need for monitoring space weather to prevent future catastrophes.
How solar storms affect humanity
Solar storms pose significant risks to modern technology and space travel due to their ability to disrupt electrical and communication systems. One major concern is their impact on satellites and communication networks. High-energy particles from solar storms can damage satellite electronics, disrupt GPS signals, and interfere with radio communications. This can affect everything from airline navigation to financial transactions that rely on precise timing from GPS satellites.
Power grids are also vulnerable. Strong geomagnetic storms can induce currents in electrical transmission lines, overloading transformers and causing blackouts, as seen in the 1989 Quebec blackout. A severe storm today could lead to widespread power failures, affecting millions of people and causing economic damage.
For astronauts and space missions, solar storms pose a serious radiation hazard. Increased exposure to high-energy particles can endanger astronaut health, damaging DNA and increasing cancer risk. Spacecraft electronics are also at risk of malfunctioning. A powerful solar storm during a Mars mission, for example, could be life-threatening.
What is Solar Forecasting?
The term “Solar Forecasting” is ambiguous, as it can refer to both solar storm forecasting (also known as Space Weather) and solar power forecasting. Both relate to the Sun’s activity but serve entirely different purposes. Solar storm forecasting focuses on predicting disruptive solar events such as solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and geomagnetic storms. These events can interfere with satellites, power grids, communication systems, and pose risks to space travel. By analysing space weather data, satellite observations, and the Sun’s activity, scientists can provide early warnings to minimize technological disruptions.
In contrast, solar power forecasting predicts the amount of solar energy available for electricity generation. It uses weather data, including solar irradiance, cloud cover, temperature, and atmospheric conditions, to estimate solar panel output over specific periods. This forecasting is essential for balancing energy supply and demand, optimizing grid management, and supporting the integration of renewable energy sources. Reuniwatt forecasts uses real-time satellite imagery to forecast the next hours ahead, ground-based data collected with our sky cameras such as the Sky InSight™, and weather prediction and advanced machine learning algorithms to accurately predict solar irradiance for the next days ahead. Our innovative solutions provide short-term and long-term forecasts, helping energy providers optimize grid management and ensure a stable integration of solar energy into power systems.
In essence, solar storm forecasting aims to protect infrastructure from solar disruptions, while solar power forecasting ensures the efficient use of solar energy for electricity production.
As we continue to rely on space-based technology and explore beyond Earth, monitoring solar activity has become a necessity. Investing in solar weather forecasting helps industries and governments prepare for potential disruptions, ensuring the resilience of critical infrastructure against the Sun’s unpredictable nature.
Stay ahead of space weather—because the Sun never takes a day off.