Backtests or Hindcasts are historic solar or wind power forecasts. They are used to get a glimpse of the expected forecasting accuracy on a specific site. Past data is used to generate historical day-ahead or intra-day forecasts. These simulations enable to determine solar plant parameters in the early planning phase, and evaluate the accuracy of forecasts for a specific site.
Determine wind or solar plant parameters
Determine wind or solar plant parameters
Historic solar and wind forecasts enable the user to determine power plant parameters in the early planning phase, and evaluate the accuracy of forecasts for a specific site.
Worldwide availability
Worldwide availability
Backtests can be performed for any location on Earth. Therefore, we rely on numerical weather prediction and satellite imagery.
Finetune decision-making processes
Finetune decision-making processes
Backtests or hindcasts can be integrated in simulations during the detailed design process. For example, they can be fed into the Energy Management System (EMS) and/or the control system of a power plant to fine-tune the decision-making processes in relation to weather conditions.
Methodology for the creation of hindcasts/backtests
A hindcast or backtest is a forecast computed in the present, but for dates in the past. For a given site and a determined time period, real-time conditions are simulated (e.g. using our SunSat™ Time Series for solar power plants or using reanalysis data for wind speed and direction) to determine the historical weather conditions. Historic forecasts are then calculated based on our HourCast™ and DayCast™ algorithms.
Hindcasts are available worldwide based on robust data from multiple geostationary meteorogical satellites and numerical weather prediction models. They give a clear indication of what to expect in terms of forecasting performance. Hindcasts can prove useful to refine decision-making processes related to weather, and provide realistic revenue estimates for
- hybrid plants including PV or wind and diesel/thermal generators and/or Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)
- grid-connected PV or wind power plants in locations where the grid-code imposes or encourages power production forecasts
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